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Demand overrides RBA to put any spring in Melbourne's property market step

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2015-08-06

The official interest rate remains unchanged at 2 per cent, but experts say it's demand rather than the Reserve Bank's decision that will steer Melbourne's spring property market. 


The levels of supply in the coming selling season and appetite from migrants and foreign buyers will also determine the strength of the market. 


Domain Group senior economist Andrew Wilson said the banks' move to hike interest rates for investors – independent of the Reserve Bank – had thrown a spanner in the works. 


Even with landlords paying a higher rate, he believed there would be plenty of investor demand as they passed the cost on to tenants where possible.


"Investors will still be happy to invest where they're getting better yields than bank deposits and there are reasonably tight vacancy rates," Dr Wilson said.


"There are still prospects of capital growth and all those taxation advantages that keep investors happy to [be] in the market, even if they've got to pay a little bit higher."


However, with the price of Melbourne houses selling at auction plummeting 11.1 per cent over July to $702,000 and a trend of weakening clearance rates, Dr Wilson said it appeared the market might have peaked. 


Melbourne would find a more moderate market in spring, he said. 


Jellis Craig Hawthorn director Richard Earle said clearance rates across Melbourne had been down slightly during the slower winter months on lower volumes.


However, he said the market was coming off historically high clearance rates that were hovering around 80 per cent or more. 

Clearances rates above 70 per cent were "still a very good market but it's just not the very strong market that we've had", he said.


With interest rates on hold, Mr Earle said the strength of the market would depend on supply rather than demand.


"I think we'll still have a very good demand for houses right through Melbourne because [of low interest rates]," he said


"Even if [the Reserve Bank] were to put up interest rates . . . historically, it's still coming off a very, very low base.


"Most people buying homes right now are astute enough to realise that interest rates over a 10 to 15-year period probably won't stay where they are right now."


Rather than interests rates going up or down, Mr Earle said it went back to the fundamentals of demand and supply.


Mal James of James Buyer Advocates believed the market was largely driven by foreign investment and migration rather than local interest rates. 


He believed that adjusting the investor interest rate by the banks and increasing stamp duty for foreign buyers would not affect the market. 


"What will make the difference is a significant change in the overseas market . . ." he said. 


"Therefore, any interest rate adjustments, in my opinion, are relatively minor."


 
Source:Domain