ORLANDO, Fla., (MarketWatch) — The long-expected influx of millennial home buyers may finally occur over the next two years, but a shortage of new entry-level homes will keep inventory tight and prices high, says the National Association of Realtors.

In 2017, sales of existing homes are forecast to grow roughly 2% to around 5.46 million and continue with a more prominent jump of 4% in 2018 (5.68 million), according to the NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun. Yun, who spoke to reporters at the NAR’s annual convention in Orlando, Fla., expects existing-home sales for 2016 to finish at a pace of about 5.36 million — the best year since 2006 (6.47 million). The national median existing-home price is expected to rise to around 4% both this year and in 2017, Yun said.

“The gradually expanding economy, multiple years of steady job creation and mortgage rates under 4% all contributed to sizeable interest in buying a home this year,” Yun said. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, with wage growth the fastest since 2009, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Student debt obligations, shaky job prospects after the recession and marrying and having children later in life have delayed first-time buyers’ ability and willingness to buy, said Yun, but a tipping point is approaching in 2017 and 2018, he said. “The wave of potential buyers entering their 30s is increasing,” he said.

Currently, only 14% of homes bought by first-time buyers this year were new construction, the lowest since 2003, NAR said. What’s more, the influx of millennials will support the single family sector, Yun said.

He anticipates housing starts to rise 5.3% next year to 1.22 million. However, this is still under the 1.5 million new homes needed to make up for the shortfall in recent years and keep up with the growing demand. New single-family home sales are likely to total 570,000 this year and rise to around 620,000 in 2017, the NAR said.

“Multi-family housing construction has dominated the building landscape in recent years and only recently started to level off,” said Yun. “Hopefully this is a sign that homebuilders will begin to significantly shift their focus to single-family housing.”

The good news is that an expansion of entry-level home buying won’t bring about a repeat of a late 2000s-style real-estate crash, according to Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart, who spoke with Yun in Orlando. “I would say we are not in a real estate bubble commercially or residentially,” he said.

Still, about 71% of millennial-aged buyers say their student debt load ( An estimated $1.3 trillion) is hurting their ability to buy a home, according to NAR’s 2016 profile of home buyers and sellers. As a result, the median age of first-time buyers is now age 32, matching the all-time high set in 2006, according to the NAR’s survey.

Source：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/young-first-time-home-buyers-will-drive-2017-existing-home-sales-2016-11-04?dist=realestate